Festive calendar mismatch hits auto retail sales in October

India's automobile industry recorded strong wholesale growth in October 2026, with passenger vehicle and two-wheeler volumes rising over 15% year-on-year (YoY). However, retail sales declined across key segments due to a shift in the festive calendar, according to a report by Kotak Institutional Equities.

The report said the decline in retail sales was largely due to the timing of festivals rather than a slowdown in underlying consumer demand.
Domestic passenger vehicle (PV) wholesale volumes grew over 15% YoY in October, supported by strong demand and inventory replenishment at dealerships. On a like-for-like basis, retail sales registered high-single-digit growth from the beginning of Navratri until the end of October.

“However, retail volumes for October 2026 declined 14% due to festive season mismatch,” the report noted.
A similar trend was observed in the two-wheeler segment, where domestic wholesale volumes increased by over 15% YoY during the month.
However, retail sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) two-wheelers declined 32 per cent YoY due to the festive calendar mismatch. In contrast, electric two-wheeler (EV) retail sales recorded a strong growth of 48% YoY.

On a like-for-like basis, overall two-wheeler retail volumes registered high-single-digit growth from the beginning of Navratri through the end of October, the report said. Meanwhile, demand in the domestic commercial vehicle (CV) segment remained strong, supported by steady sentiment among fleet operators and demand stimulus following GST-related measures.

Wholesale volumes of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) grew by over 15% YoY in October, while growth in the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment moderated to high-single digits.
Retail sales of goods commercial vehicles increased by 1% YoY, supported by demand across heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), medium goods vehicles (MGVs) and buses. VE Commercial Vehicles (VECV) also reported a 35% YoY increase in volumes during the month.

In contrast, domestic tractor sales declined by over 10% YoY in October. The report attributed the decline to relatively lower Kharif sowing, the shift in the festive season to November and a higher base in the corresponding period last year.
“In addition, OEMs have cautioned on future demand trends, owing to deficient monsoon and rising input costs,” it said. - ANI